Temona Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, October 13th, 2026
1 Day
4,381.45
decreased by 908.98
1 Week
4,542.91
decreased by 747.52
1 Month
5,850.91
increased by 560.48
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 11:18 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 7, 2017 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 91 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~91 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9577 | 5.61*** |
| αARCH | 0.1876 | 13.30*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8047 | 55.83*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0250 | 1.81* |
0.992
Persistence91d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9577 | 5.61*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1876 | 13.30*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8047 | 55.83*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0250 | 1.81* |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
91 days
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