How volatility evolves over time

How illiquidity evolves over time

{name} Model Equation

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Spline Coefficients

Value at Risk (VaR) estimates the maximum loss at a given confidence level. Expected Shortfall (ES) estimates the average loss beyond VaR.

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Param	Value	t-stat
mwindow	36
αARCH	0.1661	11.27***
βGARCH	0.7780	36.97***
γleverage	-0.1088	-6.29***
λ₁tau intercept	10.0000	1.94*
λ₂forecast adj.	0.7891	29.25***
λ₃tau persistence	0.2109	15.74***

Parameter	Value	t-statistic
m window Rolling window length	36
α ARCH Response to squared shocks	0.1661	11.27***
β GARCH Volatility persistence	0.7780	36.97***
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks	-0.1088	-6.29***
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient	10.0000	1.94*
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity	0.7891	29.25***
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence	0.2109	15.74***

V-Lab

Temona Inc ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis

Date Range:

News Impact Curve

Illiquidity Forecast

Parameter Estimates

Other Temona Inc Analyses