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Mksystem Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026

1 Day

15,872.48

decreased by 1,599.04

1 Week

17,450.52

decreased by 21.00

1 Month

14,426.23

decreased by 3,045.29

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at 07:36 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Mksystem Corp ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 18, 2015 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 629 trading days (~2.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~629 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.0266
4.56***
αARCH0.1553
11.53***
βGARCH0.8436
61.44***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0263
1.80*

0.999

Persistence

629d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0266
4.56***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1553
11.53***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8436
61.44***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0263
1.80*

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

629 days