V-Lab
Mksystem Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
24,097.51
decreased by 3,348.73
1 Week
29,559.98
increased by 2,113.74
1 Month
24,052.20
decreased by 3,394.04
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 03:15 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 18, 2015 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 620 trading days (~2.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0314 | 4.59*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1562 | 11.47*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8427 | 60.67*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0264 | 1.79* |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
620 days
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