V-Lab
Mksystem Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
15,872.48
decreased by 1,599.04
1 Week
17,450.52
decreased by 21.00
1 Month
14,426.23
decreased by 3,045.29
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at 07:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 18, 2015 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 629 trading days (~2.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~629 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0266 | 4.56*** |
| αARCH | 0.1553 | 11.53*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8436 | 61.44*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0263 | 1.80* |
0.999
Persistence629d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0266 | 4.56*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1553 | 11.53*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8436 | 61.44*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0263 | 1.80* |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
629 days
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