V-Lab
Mksystem Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
11,102.29
decreased by 705.77
1 Week
11,730.74
decreased by 77.32
1 Month
17,961.42
increased by 6,153.36
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 11:26 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 18, 2015 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 632 trading days (~2.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0283 | 4.56*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1566 | 11.51*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8423 | 60.70*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0250 | 1.69* |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
632 days
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