V-Lab
Mksystem Corp ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
25,223.18
1 Week
30,574.95
1 Month
23,485.10
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 03:15 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 18, 2015 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 43 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 43 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 106 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1561 | 0.83 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8647 | 299.30*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0738 | -0.20 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 1.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0010 | 0.23 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9853 | 81.70*** |
Persistence:
0.984
Half-life:
43 days
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