V-Lab
Abalance Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, August 28th, 2026
1 Day
10,835.69
increased by 1,299.83
1 Week
4,472.97
decreased by 5,062.89
1 Month
1,479.21
decreased by 8,056.65
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 28, 2026 at 07:30 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 19, 2007 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 3332 trading days (~13.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1662 | 2.59*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2515 | 20.59*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7483 | 61.11*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | 0.4785 | 1.40 |
| γ2 | -2.1984 | -3.15*** |
| γ3 | 4.0689 | 5.30*** |
| γ4 | -4.0625 | -6.47*** |
| γ5 | 2.5658 | 7.94*** |
| γ6 | -0.9865 | -3.11*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
3332 days
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