V-Lab
Haosen Fintech Group Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
10,944.74
increased by 4,468.41
1 Week
3,505.14
decreased by 2,971.19
1 Month
1,383.69
decreased by 5,092.64
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 06:58 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 21, 2017 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 99021 trading days (~392.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1256 | 0.02 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2262 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7738 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | 0.2953 | 0.00 |
| γ2 | -1.0718 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
99021 days
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