Nextgen Inc Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, November 5th, 2026
1 Day
10,891.78
increased by 1,116.61
1 Week
7,264.02
decreased by 2,511.15
1 Month
3,496.56
decreased by 6,278.61
Analysis last updated: Thursday, November 5, 2026 at 08:42 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 14, 2007 to Nov 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.998, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 306 trading days (~1.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.998, shock half-life ~306 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.4414 | 3.38*** |
| αARCH | 0.2002 | 12.77*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7975 | 47.17*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0077 | 1.60 |
0.998
Persistence306d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4414 | 3.38*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2002 | 12.77*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7975 | 47.17*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0077 | 1.60 |
Persistence:
0.998
Half-life:
306 days
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