Nextgen Inc ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, November 5th, 2026
1 Day
11,418.54
1 Week
7,515.59
1 Month
3,486.47
Analysis last updated: Thursday, November 5, 2026 at 08:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 14, 2007 to Nov 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1054 trading days (~4.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| αARCH | 0.2121 | 20.93*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8076 | 87.60*** |
| γleverage | -0.0407 | -4.25*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 10,526.2536 |
0.999
Persistence1054d
Half-lifeILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2121 | 20.93*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8076 | 87.60*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0407 | -4.25*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10,526.2536 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
1054 days
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