V-Lab
Nextgen Inc ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 3rd, 2026
1 Day
9,103.04
1 Week
4,455.47
1 Month
4,107.26
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 2, 2026 at 07:38 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 14, 2007 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 483 trading days (~1.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2109 | 11.81*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8088 | 346.81*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0421 | -1.18 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 3.3816 | 6.20*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.03 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9991 | 1,914.03*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
483 days
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