V-Lab
Information Planning Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
4,211.78
decreased by 397.50
1 Week
2,774.71
decreased by 1,834.57
1 Month
1,842.56
decreased by 2,766.72
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 07:24 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 2, 2003 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 144 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0087 | 5.03*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1251 | 11.50*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8701 | 80.33*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0022 | -0.89 |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
144 days
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