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V-Lab

Information Planning Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026

1 Day

4,211.78

decreased by 397.50

1 Week

2,774.71

decreased by 1,834.57

1 Month

1,842.56

decreased by 2,766.72

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 07:24 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Information Planning Co Ltd ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 2, 2003 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 144 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0087
5.03***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1251
11.50***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8701
80.33***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0022
-0.89

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

144 days