V-Lab
Information Planning Co Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
4,604.60
1 Week
2,837.92
1 Month
1,781.50
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 07:24 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 2, 2003 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 102% more after negative returns
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 4.12*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0689 | 27.10*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8959 | 439.81*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0704 | 10.55*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
Other Information Planning Co Ltd Analyses
Other Asymmetric ILLIQ Analyses on International Equities