V-Lab
Yancoal Australia Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
811.74
increased by 91.83
1 Week
776.11
increased by 56.20
1 Month
596.84
decreased by 123.07
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 12:29 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 6, 2018 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 46 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5052 | 2.67*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1535 | 6.12*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8314 | 21.79*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | 2.5712 | 0.90 |
| γ2 | -18.2158 | -3.89*** |
| γ3 | 33.5997 | 9.24*** |
| γ4 | -24.4962 | -5.79*** |
| γ5 | 9.1411 | 2.33** |
| γ6 | -5.1961 | -1.74* |
| γ7 | 5.2958 | 1.52 |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
46 days
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