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Yancoal Australia Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

729.85

increased by 157.43

1 Week

656.38

increased by 83.96

1 Month

509.30

decreased by 63.12

Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 12:29 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Yancoal Australia Ltd ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 6, 2018 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 42% more after negative returns

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
1.89*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1419
10.21***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8281
329.80***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0599
2.13**

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1386294 days