V-Lab
Unique Optical Industrial Co Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
197.71
increased by 38.84
1 Week
187.46
increased by 28.59
1 Month
359.34
increased by 200.47
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 06:21 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 18, 2008 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 86643 trading days (~343.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0826 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2300 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7700 | 0.01 |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.7698 | 0.00 |
| γ2 | 4.4960 | 0.00 |
| γ3 | -11.3544 | -0.01 |
| γ4 | 15.0983 | 0.00 |
| γ5 | -10.0339 | 0.00 |
| γ6 | 2.4372 | 0.00 |
| γ7 | -0.3705 | -0.01 |
| γ8 | 0.9842 | 0.00 |
| γ9 | -0.1935 | 0.00 |
| γ10 | -1.8942 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
86643 days
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