V-Lab
Kfc Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, July 29th, 2026
1 Day
10,663.93
increased by 8,741.27
1 Week
3,588.82
increased by 1,666.16
1 Month
1,810.93
decreased by 111.73
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 29, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 25, 1999 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 33 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.6448 | 4.16*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1253 | 8.91*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8540 | 52.22*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | 0.0623 | 0.53 |
| γ2 | -0.3839 | -2.24** |
| γ3 | 0.7193 | 7.19*** |
| γ4 | -0.6767 | -7.67*** |
| γ5 | 0.4830 | 4.66*** |
| γ6 | -0.3454 | -2.35** |
Persistence:
0.979
Half-life:
33 days
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