Logan Group Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, October 21st, 2026
1 Day
4,239.10
increased by 332.74
1 Week
4,585.53
increased by 679.17
1 Month
5,156.72
increased by 1,250.36
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 21, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 20, 2013 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.997, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 265 trading days (~1.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.997, shock half-life ~265 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.1832 | 4.43*** |
| αARCH | 0.1685 | 12.57*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8289 | 66.93*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0113 | 0.60 |
0.997
Persistence265d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1832 | 4.43*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1685 | 12.57*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8289 | 66.93*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0113 | 0.60 |
Persistence:
0.997
Half-life:
265 days
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