Logan Group Co Ltd Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, October 21st, 2026
1 Day
4,407.35
1 Week
4,586.41
1 Month
4,826.96
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 21, 2026 at 07:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 20, 2013 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 693147 trading days (~2750.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 70% more after negative returns
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 5.0000 | 2.16** |
| αARCH | 0.1118 | 5.30*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8488 | 73.75*** |
| γleverage | 0.0787 | 2.43** |
1.000
Persistence693147d
Half-lifeILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 2.16** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1118 | 5.30*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8488 | 73.75*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0787 | 2.43** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
693147 days
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