V-Lab
BOCOM International Holdings Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
12,077.78
increased by 2,111.04
1 Week
8,773.66
decreased by 1,193.08
1 Month
5,608.86
decreased by 4,357.88
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 28, 2026 at 06:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 19, 2017 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 23 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2879 | 2.41** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2559 | 5.59*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7139 | 17.00*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | 1.7283 | 3.78*** |
| γ2 | -3.3484 | -4.70*** |
| γ3 | 3.4889 | 8.37*** |
| γ4 | -4.1309 | -9.37*** |
| γ5 | 3.3591 | 4.70*** |
Persistence:
0.970
Half-life:
23 days
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