Jiangxi Avonflow Hvac Tech Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
1,526.82
increased by 369.04
1 Week
1,297.55
increased by 139.77
1 Month
1,049.93
decreased by 107.85
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:24 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 10, 2025 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0624 | 7.80*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2409 | 3.30*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5405 | 3.66*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0618 | 0.04 |
Persistence:
0.781
Half-life:
3 days
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