Jiangxi Avonflow Hvac Tech Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
976.80
decreased by 118.98
1 Week
1,243.73
increased by 147.95
1 Month
1,097.54
increased by 1.76
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 10:15 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 10, 2025 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0329 | 7.86*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2423 | 3.37*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5353 | 3.68*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.1684 | 0.11 |
Persistence:
0.778
Half-life:
3 days
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