Jiangxi Avonflow Hvac Tech Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
1,198.38
decreased by 21.47
1 Week
1,371.21
increased by 151.36
1 Month
1,166.58
decreased by 53.27
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 18, 2026 at 10:15 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Sep 10, 2025 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.993, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 99 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: illiquidity responds almost entirely to negative returns
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5510 | 0.71 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0217 | 1.17 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8948 | 95.74*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1531 | 4.62*** |
Persistence:
0.993
Half-life:
99 days
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