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Jiangxi Avonflow Hvac Tech Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Liquidity prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026

1 Day

1,248.88

increased by 50.50

1 Week

1,297.76

increased by 99.38

1 Month

1,170.50

decreased by 27.88

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 06:27 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Jiangxi Avonflow Hvac Tech ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's liquidity

Liquidity Forecast

How liquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Sep 10, 2025 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.993, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 99 trading days (~0.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Asymmetry: illiquidity responds almost entirely to negative returns

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.5510
0.71
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0217
1.17
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8948
95.74***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1531
4.62***

Persistence:

0.993

Half-life:

99 days