V-Lab
Collins Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, September 24th, 2026
1 Day
6,491.22
decreased by 63.45
1 Week
6,099.21
decreased by 455.46
1 Month
4,022.89
decreased by 2,531.78
Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 24, 2026 at 08:32 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 23, 1994 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1078 trading days (~4.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~1078 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.1125 | 5.58*** |
| αARCH | 0.1497 | 18.53*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8497 | 104.11*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0087 | -7.32*** |
0.999
Persistence1078d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1125 | 5.58*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1497 | 18.53*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8497 | 104.11*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0087 | -7.32*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
1078 days
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