EnTie Commercial Bank Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, October 15th, 2026
1 Day
6,058.35
decreased by 123.08
1 Week
6,155.34
decreased by 26.09
1 Month
5,579.36
decreased by 602.07
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 08:59 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 29, 1997 to Oct 8, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 4847 trading days (~19.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~4847 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0538 | 5.89*** |
| αARCH | 0.1530 | 13.24*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8469 | 72.91*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0053 | -1.51 |
1.000
Persistence4847d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0538 | 5.89*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1530 | 13.24*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8469 | 72.91*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0053 | -1.51 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
4847 days
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