V-Lab
Youngqin Intl Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
2,243.87
decreased by 157.54
1 Week
2,142.57
decreased by 258.84
1 Month
3,101.38
increased by 699.97
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 03:04 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 26, 2019 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 4387 trading days (~17.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.4913 | 1.76* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2510 | 2.58*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7489 | 7.72*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -41.5632 | -2.90*** |
| γ2 | 69.1824 | 2.81*** |
| γ3 | -39.2342 | -2.47** |
| γ4 | 12.2921 | 1.56 |
| γ5 | 0.6829 | 0.19 |
| γ6 | 0.0884 | 0.02 |
| γ7 | -5.0283 | -1.11 |
| γ8 | 6.6744 | 1.62 |
| γ9 | -4.4138 | -0.92 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
4387 days
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