V-Lab
Festaria Holdings Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, July 29th, 2026
1 Day
5,249.38
decreased by 249.42
1 Week
5,130.72
decreased by 368.08
1 Month
6,520.94
increased by 1,022.14
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 29, 2026 at 07:20 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 13, 2002 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 83 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.6501 | 6.72*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1244 | 11.46*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8673 | 84.35*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0076 | 3.34*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
83 days
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