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Festaria Holdings Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, July 29th, 2026

1 Day

5,249.38

decreased by 249.42

1 Week

5,130.72

decreased by 368.08

1 Month

6,520.94

increased by 1,022.14

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 29, 2026 at 07:20 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Festaria Holdings Co Ltd ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 13, 2002 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.992, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 83 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.6501
6.72***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1244
11.46***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8673
84.35***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0076
3.34***

Persistence:

0.992

Half-life:

83 days