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V-Lab

Shanghai REFIRE Group Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

3,549.83

decreased by 201.07

1 Week

4,036.07

increased by 285.17

1 Month

2,997.30

decreased by 753.60

Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 01:00 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of Shanghai REFIRE Group Ltd ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 6, 2024 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.3996
5.46***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2816
2.72***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.4315
3.88***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ1-2.6264
-2.56**
γ27.7307
4.18***

Persistence:

0.713

Half-life:

2 days