V-Lab
Shanghai REFIRE Group Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
3,549.83
decreased by 201.07
1 Week
4,036.07
increased by 285.17
1 Month
2,997.30
decreased by 753.60
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 01:00 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 6, 2024 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.3996 | 5.46*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2816 | 2.72*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4315 | 3.88*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=2
| γ1 | -2.6264 | -2.56** |
| γ2 | 7.7307 | 4.18*** |
Persistence:
0.713
Half-life:
2 days
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