V-Lab
Shanghai REFIRE Group Ltd ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
3,059.15
1 Week
3,800.10
1 Month
2,572.91
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 01:00 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 6, 2024 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows asymmetric liquidity dynamics: illiquidity rises 17% more after negative returns than after positive returns of equal magnitude. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.4282 | 57.32*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4730 | 74.52*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0724 | 11.26*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 3,037.0920 |
Persistence:
0.937
Half-life:
11 days
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