V-Lab
Kedge Construction Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
689.47
increased by 92.93
1 Week
585.19
decreased by 11.35
1 Month
629.34
increased by 32.80
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 08:17 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 20, 2001 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 138629 trading days (~550.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8737 | 0.10 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1706 | 0.02 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8294 | 0.10 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0287 | -0.04 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
138629 days
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