V-Lab
Chain QUI Development Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
2,726.68
decreased by 247.94
1 Week
3,358.88
increased by 384.26
1 Month
4,660.73
increased by 1,686.11
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 09:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 3, 2024 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 12 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.8910 | 8.64*** |
| αARCH | 0.1681 | 3.95*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7740 | 12.42*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -1.0148 | -3.58*** |
0.942
Persistence12d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8910 | 8.64*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1681 | 3.95*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7740 | 12.42*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -1.0148 | -3.58*** |
Persistence:
0.942
Half-life:
12 days
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