Chain QUI Development Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Wednesday, July 8th, 2026
1 Day
6,280.61
increased by 1,527.04
1 Week
4,797.95
increased by 44.38
1 Month
3,807.99
decreased by 945.58
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 8, 2026 at 11:19 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 3, 2024 to Jul 3, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 8 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8274 | 8.77*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1731 | 3.65*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7400 | 8.88*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -1.2287 | -4.27*** |
Persistence:
0.913
Half-life:
8 days
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