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Chain QUI Development Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026

1 Day

2,726.68

decreased by 247.94

1 Week

3,358.88

increased by 384.26

1 Month

4,660.73

increased by 1,686.11

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 09:52 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Chain QUI Development ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 3, 2024 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 12 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.8910
8.64***
αARCH0.1681
3.95***
βGARCH0.7740
12.42***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-1.0148
-3.58***

0.942

Persistence

12d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.8910
8.64***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1681
3.95***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7740
12.42***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-1.0148
-3.58***

Persistence:

0.942

Half-life:

12 days