Chain QUI Development ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Liquidity prediction for Wednesday, July 8th, 2026
1 Day
6,404.73
1 Week
5,124.48
1 Month
4,204.37
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 8, 2026 at 11:19 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 3, 2024 to Jul 3, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1510 | 3.17*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7405 | 20.41*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1510 | -1.97** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.8517 | 0.08 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9980 | 187.66*** |
Persistence:
0.816
Half-life:
3 days
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