V-Lab
Chain QUI Development ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
3,372.94
1 Week
3,925.93
1 Month
5,012.23
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 09:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 3, 2024 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 126 | |
| αARCH | 0.1431 | 4.50*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7693 | 11.87*** |
| γleverage | -0.1431 | -4.70*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 10.0000 | 0.24 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9950 | 110.13*** |
0.841
Persistence4d
Half-lifeILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1431 | 4.50*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7693 | 11.87*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1431 | -4.70*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.24 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9950 | 110.13*** |
Persistence:
0.841
Half-life:
4 days
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