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Chain QUI Development ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026

1 Day

3,372.94

decreased by 231.74

1 Week

3,925.93

increased by 321.25

1 Month

5,012.23

increased by 1,407.55

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 09:52 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of Chain QUI Development ILLIQ-MFMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 3, 2024 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.

μ

ILLIQ-MFMEM Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 4-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow126
αARCH0.1431
4.50***
βGARCH0.7693
11.87***
γleverage-0.1431
-4.70***
λ₁tau intercept10.0000
0.24
λ₂forecast adj.0.0000
0.00
λ₃tau persistence0.9950
110.13***

0.841

Persistence

4d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-MFMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

126
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1431
4.50***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7693
11.87***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.1431
-4.70***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

10.0000
0.24
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0000
0.00
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9950
110.13***

Persistence:

0.841

Half-life:

4 days