V-Lab
Uniform Industrial Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
7,598.52
increased by 3,075.11
1 Week
5,036.93
increased by 513.52
1 Month
4,587.63
increased by 64.22
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 01:43 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 15, 2002 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 472 trading days (~1.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1787 | 4.36*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1955 | 15.01*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8031 | 58.29*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -0.3931 | -4.08*** |
| γ2 | 0.6420 | 4.23*** |
| γ3 | -0.4769 | -4.15*** |
| γ4 | 0.4819 | 5.31*** |
| γ5 | -0.6876 | -9.11*** |
| γ6 | 1.1642 | 10.41*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
472 days
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