Skip to main content
V-Lab

Uniform Industrial Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

7,598.52

increased by 3,075.11

1 Week

5,036.93

increased by 513.52

1 Month

4,587.63

increased by 64.22

Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 01:43 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Uniform Industrial ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Feb 15, 2002 to Aug 21, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 472 trading days (~1.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.1787
4.36***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1955
15.01***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8031
58.29***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=6
γ1-0.3931
-4.08***
γ20.6420
4.23***
γ3-0.4769
-4.15***
γ40.4819
5.31***
γ5-0.6876
-9.11***
γ61.1642
10.41***

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

472 days