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Cedar Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Friday, July 31st, 2026

1 Day

7,854.44

increased by 1,161.33

1 Week

7,933.60

increased by 1,240.49

1 Month

4,833.08

decreased by 1,860.03

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 31, 2026 at 07:18 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Cedar Co Ltd ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 17, 2005 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 7534 trading days (~29.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9103
5.93***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1678
11.96***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8321
59.02***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=6
γ1-0.8125
-4.25***
γ21.1875
4.85***
γ3-1.2679
-6.51***
γ42.1041
6.73***
γ5-1.8781
-6.42***
γ61.0526
4.94***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

7534 days