V-Lab
Cedar Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, July 31st, 2026
1 Day
7,854.44
increased by 1,161.33
1 Week
7,933.60
increased by 1,240.49
1 Month
4,833.08
decreased by 1,860.03
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 31, 2026 at 07:18 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 17, 2005 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 7534 trading days (~29.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9103 | 5.93*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1678 | 11.96*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8321 | 59.02*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -0.8125 | -4.25*** |
| γ2 | 1.1875 | 4.85*** |
| γ3 | -1.2679 | -6.51*** |
| γ4 | 2.1041 | 6.73*** |
| γ5 | -1.8781 | -6.42*** |
| γ6 | 1.0526 | 4.94*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
7534 days
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