V-Lab
Nippon Info DEV Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, August 13th, 2026
1 Day
9,175.40
increased by 5,982.07
1 Week
4,309.61
increased by 1,116.28
1 Month
2,771.68
decreased by 421.65
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 13, 2026 at 08:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 31, 2003 to Aug 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 12 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7451 | 5.83*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1725 | 10.92*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7704 | 36.54*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | 0.3667 | 5.07*** |
| γ2 | -0.4673 | -4.10*** |
| γ3 | -0.1683 | -1.95* |
| γ4 | 0.5177 | 6.66*** |
| γ5 | -0.2108 | -2.78*** |
| γ6 | -0.1952 | -2.36** |
| γ7 | 0.2512 | 2.44** |
Persistence:
0.943
Half-life:
12 days
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