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Continental Aerospace Technologies Holding Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

310.21

increased by 57.28

1 Week

356.86

increased by 103.93

1 Month

404.12

increased by 151.19

Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 12:21 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Continental Aerospace Technologies Holding Ltd ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 2007 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 21004 trading days (~83.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

10.4209
0.04
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1694
0.05
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8306
0.24
γi Spline Coefficients
K=7
γ1-2.2850
-1.89*
γ24.0176
1.57
γ3-3.4489
-0.19
γ42.6710
0.17
γ5-1.6186
-1.03
γ64.1733
0.08
γ7-10.0821
-0.07

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

21004 days