V-Lab
Continental Aerospace Technologies Holding Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
310.21
increased by 57.28
1 Week
356.86
increased by 103.93
1 Month
404.12
increased by 151.19
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 12:21 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2007 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 21004 trading days (~83.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 10.4209 | 0.04 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1694 | 0.05 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8306 | 0.24 |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | -2.2850 | -1.89* |
| γ2 | 4.0176 | 1.57 |
| γ3 | -3.4489 | -0.19 |
| γ4 | 2.6710 | 0.17 |
| γ5 | -1.6186 | -1.03 |
| γ6 | 4.1733 | 0.08 |
| γ7 | -10.0821 | -0.07 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
21004 days
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