Continental Aerospace Technologies Holding Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Liquidity prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
480.35
increased by 70.67
1 Week
438.64
increased by 28.96
1 Month
419.30
increased by 9.62
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 06:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's liquidityLiquidity Forecast
How liquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2007 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 21004 trading days (~83.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 10.4532 | 0.04 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1696 | 0.05 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8304 | 0.23 |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | -2.2872 | -1.82* |
| γ2 | 4.0177 | 1.60 |
| γ3 | -3.4423 | -0.19 |
| γ4 | 2.6573 | 0.18 |
| γ5 | -1.6338 | -0.86 |
| γ6 | 4.2581 | 0.07 |
| γ7 | -10.0735 | -0.07 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
21004 days
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