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C.T.I. Traffic Industries Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, October 28th, 2026

1 Day

5,470.57

decreased by 17.09

1 Week

4,931.92

decreased by 555.74

1 Month

6,081.16

increased by 593.50

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 28, 2026 at 09:31 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/27/2024

to

10/27/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of C.T.I. Traffic Industries Co Ltd ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 10, 2007 to Oct 27, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 35 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.7812
1.11
αARCH0.2069
10.00***
βGARCH0.7735
29.12***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ1-1.3426
-1.10
γ23.0756
2.09**
γ3-2.5736
-6.55***
γ41.0437
2.78***
γ5-0.4625
-0.98
γ6-0.0295
-0.05
γ71.2026
2.36**
γ8-0.8751
-1.12

0.980

Persistence

35d

Half-life
μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.7812
1.11
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2069
10.00***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7735
29.12***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ1-1.3426
-1.10
γ23.0756
2.09**
γ3-2.5736
-6.55***
γ41.0437
2.78***
γ5-0.4625
-0.98
γ6-0.0295
-0.05
γ71.2026
2.36**
γ8-0.8751
-1.12

Persistence:

0.980

Half-life:

35 days