C.T.I. Traffic Industries Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, October 28th, 2026
1 Day
5,470.57
decreased by 17.09
1 Week
4,931.92
decreased by 555.74
1 Month
6,081.16
increased by 593.50
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 28, 2026 at 09:31 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 10, 2007 to Oct 27, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 35 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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Time-varying baseline: illiquidity reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.7812 | 1.11 |
| αARCH | 0.2069 | 10.00*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7735 | 29.12*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -1.3426 | -1.10 |
| γ2 | 3.0756 | 2.09** |
| γ3 | -2.5736 | -6.55*** |
| γ4 | 1.0437 | 2.78*** |
| γ5 | -0.4625 | -0.98 |
| γ6 | -0.0295 | -0.05 |
| γ7 | 1.2026 | 2.36** |
| γ8 | -0.8751 | -1.12 |
0.980
Persistence35d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.7812 | 1.11 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2069 | 10.00*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7735 | 29.12*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -1.3426 | -1.10 |
| γ2 | 3.0756 | 2.09** |
| γ3 | -2.5736 | -6.55*** |
| γ4 | 1.0437 | 2.78*** |
| γ5 | -0.4625 | -0.98 |
| γ6 | -0.0295 | -0.05 |
| γ7 | 1.2026 | 2.36** |
| γ8 | -0.8751 | -1.12 |
Persistence:
0.980
Half-life:
35 days
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