C.T.I. Traffic Industries Co Ltd ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, October 28th, 2026
1 Day
5,712.71
1 Week
5,225.52
1 Month
7,194.69
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 28, 2026 at 09:31 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 10, 2007 to Oct 27, 2026Model Insight
Illiquidity shocks decay with a half-life of 10 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 10 days. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 126 | |
| αARCH | 0.1913 | 15.70*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8377 | 85.42*** |
| γleverage | -0.1913 | -0.85 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0000 | 0.09 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9890 | 36.53*** |
0.933
Persistence10d
Half-lifeILLIQ-MFMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1913 | 15.70*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8377 | 85.42*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1913 | -0.85 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.09 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9890 | 36.53*** |
Persistence:
0.933
Half-life:
10 days
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