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Cmc Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, July 23rd, 2026

1 Day

6,257.16

increased by 3,519.14

1 Week

3,926.89

increased by 1,188.87

1 Month

2,442.50

decreased by 295.52

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 23, 2026 at 07:23 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Cmc Corp ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 5, 2008 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.994, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 124 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.5384
6.09***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1418
10.33***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8526
61.75***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0111
-2.27**

Persistence:

0.994

Half-life:

124 days