V-Lab
Cmc Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, July 23rd, 2026
1 Day
6,257.16
increased by 3,519.14
1 Week
3,926.89
increased by 1,188.87
1 Month
2,442.50
decreased by 295.52
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 23, 2026 at 07:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 5, 2008 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 124 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5384 | 6.09*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1418 | 10.33*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8526 | 61.75*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0111 | -2.27** |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
124 days
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