Skip to main content
V-Lab

Cmc Corp Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, July 23rd, 2026

1 Day

5,726.29

increased by 3,107.05

1 Week

3,614.35

increased by 995.11

1 Month

2,301.12

decreased by 318.12

Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 23, 2026 at 07:23 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Cmc Corp ILLIQ-AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Dec 5, 2008 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): illiquidity shocks do not decay and the long-run level is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.

Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 25% more after negative returns

μ

ILLIQ-AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
3.22***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0987
24.43***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8890
379.75***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0246
4.07***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

-