V-Lab
Nms Holdings Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
530.05
decreased by 133.50
1 Week
470.10
decreased by 193.45
1 Month
345.43
decreased by 318.12
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 03:12 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 25, 2007 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 34 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6651 | 3.04*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2674 | 14.61*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7126 | 34.14*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | -1.4099 | -7.86*** |
| γ2 | 1.9927 | 5.76*** |
| γ3 | -0.8981 | -2.82*** |
| γ4 | 0.6796 | 2.83*** |
| γ5 | -0.5475 | -3.16*** |
| γ6 | 0.2617 | 1.86* |
| γ7 | 0.0177 | 0.08 |
Persistence:
0.980
Half-life:
34 days
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