V-Lab
Ching Chan Optical Techno Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
13,299.85
increased by 3,640.11
1 Week
8,110.17
decreased by 1,549.57
1 Month
3,534.59
decreased by 6,125.15
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 08:43 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 6, 2016 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 59 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.6921 | 3.35*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1698 | 5.91*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8186 | 27.73*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -5.8482 | -4.42*** |
| γ2 | 8.6793 | 2.91*** |
| γ3 | -2.3275 | -0.83 |
| γ4 | -2.5776 | -1.59 |
| γ5 | 4.2712 | 4.06*** |
| γ6 | -4.8362 | -5.07*** |
| γ7 | 4.8739 | 3.78*** |
| γ8 | -3.0751 | -0.99 |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
59 days
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