V-Lab
China Aluminum Int Engr Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, August 13th, 2026
1 Day
5,090.92
decreased by 1,297.65
1 Week
4,152.55
decreased by 2,236.02
1 Month
4,975.79
decreased by 1,412.78
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 13, 2026 at 07:21 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 6, 2012 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 41 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.9835 | 2.03** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3013 | 7.43*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6818 | 20.73*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -0.5604 | -1.60 |
| γ2 | 0.7954 | 1.63 |
| γ3 | -1.1283 | -3.18*** |
| γ4 | 1.8606 | 4.46*** |
| γ5 | -1.1758 | -2.32** |
| γ6 | 0.0678 | 0.06 |
Persistence:
0.983
Half-life:
41 days
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