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China Aluminum Int Engr Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, August 13th, 2026

1 Day

5,090.92

decreased by 1,297.65

1 Week

4,152.55

decreased by 2,236.02

1 Month

4,975.79

decreased by 1,412.78

Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 13, 2026 at 07:21 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of China Aluminum Int Engr Corp ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 6, 2012 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 41 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.9835
2.03**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3013
7.43***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6818
20.73***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=6
γ1-0.5604
-1.60
γ20.7954
1.63
γ3-1.1283
-3.18***
γ41.8606
4.46***
γ5-1.1758
-2.32**
γ60.0678
0.06

Persistence:

0.983

Half-life:

41 days