Wei Chih Steel Ind Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, October 21st, 2026
1 Day
5,503.84
increased by 839.33
1 Week
5,382.76
increased by 718.25
1 Month
6,396.04
increased by 1,731.53
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 21, 2026 at 08:26 PM UTC
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How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1997 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 138629 trading days (~550.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
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High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~138629 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9664 | 0.44 |
| αARCH | 0.1813 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.8187 | 0.02 |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -0.3515 | -0.01 |
| γ2 | 0.3838 | 0.01 |
| γ3 | -0.3235 | 0.00 |
| γ4 | 1.0381 | 0.00 |
| γ5 | -1.5551 | 0.00 |
| γ6 | 1.6769 | 0.00 |
1.000
Persistence138629d
Half-lifeμ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9664 | 0.44 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1813 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8187 | 0.02 |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -0.3515 | -0.01 |
| γ2 | 0.3838 | 0.01 |
| γ3 | -0.3235 | 0.00 |
| γ4 | 1.0381 | 0.00 |
| γ5 | -1.5551 | 0.00 |
| γ6 | 1.6769 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
138629 days
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