V-Lab
Wei Chih Steel Ind ILLIQ-MFMEM Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
4,888.23
1 Week
5,626.98
1 Month
6,047.59
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at 08:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1997 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 2254 trading days (~8.9 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. This multi-frequency model splits illiquidity into a fast short-run component and a slow-moving long-run level that drifts over the sample rather than a constant baseline.
ILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 81 | |
| αARCH | 0.2127 | 16.02*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8128 | 74.94*** |
| γleverage | -0.0515 | -4.65*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9999 | 68.67*** |
1.000
Persistence2254d
Half-lifeILLIQ-MFMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 81 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2127 | 16.02*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8128 | 74.94*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0515 | -4.65*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9999 | 68.67*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
2254 days
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