V-Lab
Atal SA/Poland Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026
1 Day
6,087.82
decreased by 2,209.29
1 Week
7,726.04
decreased by 571.07
1 Month
7,416.76
decreased by 880.35
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 08:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 24, 2015 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.4839 | 1.97** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2858 | 3.26*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5427 | 8.05*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.1933 | -0.08 |
| γ2 | -0.6038 | -0.15 |
| γ3 | 0.5813 | 0.27 |
| γ4 | 1.1613 | 1.56 |
| γ5 | -2.1087 | -1.94* |
| γ6 | 2.6969 | 2.52** |
| γ7 | -2.8939 | -3.92*** |
| γ8 | 2.2114 | 3.57*** |
| γ9 | -1.0023 | -1.76* |
| γ10 | -1.1033 | -1.38 |
Persistence:
0.829
Half-life:
4 days
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