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V-Lab

Atal SA/Poland Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026

1 Day

6,087.82

decreased by 2,209.29

1 Week

7,726.04

decreased by 571.07

1 Month

7,416.76

decreased by 880.35

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 08:11 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Atal SA/Poland ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 24, 2015 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.4839
1.97**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2858
3.26***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.5427
8.05***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-0.1933
-0.08
γ2-0.6038
-0.15
γ30.5813
0.27
γ41.1613
1.56
γ5-2.1087
-1.94*
γ62.6969
2.52**
γ7-2.8939
-3.92***
γ82.2114
3.57***
γ9-1.0023
-1.76*
γ10-1.1033
-1.38

Persistence:

0.829

Half-life:

4 days