V-Lab
Atal SA/Poland Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Friday, August 21st, 2026
1 Day
38,571.44
decreased by 297.89
1 Week
39,031.50
increased by 162.17
1 Month
41,442.95
increased by 2,573.62
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 21, 2026 at 08:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 24, 2015 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0039 | 1.15 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9923 | 456.25*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0075 | 1.54 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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