V-Lab
ITC Properties Group Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, August 20th, 2026
1 Day
2,605.14
increased by 853.94
1 Week
1,851.10
increased by 99.90
1 Month
3,231.06
increased by 1,479.86
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 20, 2026 at 06:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 2007 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 86643 trading days (~343.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4.5709 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1349 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8651 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | 0.4142 | 0.00 |
| γ2 | -3.1635 | -0.14 |
| γ3 | 4.5558 | 0.02 |
| γ4 | -2.4564 | -0.05 |
| γ5 | 1.1299 | 0.01 |
| γ6 | -0.4235 | 0.00 |
| γ7 | 0.5470 | 0.00 |
| γ8 | -1.2480 | -0.01 |
| γ9 | 0.8508 | 0.00 |
| γ10 | -4.3302 | -0.01 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
86643 days
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