V-Lab
Kitano Construction Corp Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
684.21
increased by 28.37
1 Week
621.10
decreased by 34.74
1 Month
540.87
decreased by 114.97
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 02:12 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 1, 1992 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 118 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.0484 | 7.27*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1402 | 18.51*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8539 | 108.22*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0003 | 0.35 |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
118 days
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