V-Lab
Kitano Construction Corp Asymmetric ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
751.82
increased by 45.48
1 Week
658.28
decreased by 48.06
1 Month
519.40
decreased by 186.94
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 02:10 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 1, 1992 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 757 trading days (~3.0 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: Illiquidity rises 53% more after negative returns
μ
ILLIQ-AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 16.56*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1069 | 36.42*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8636 | 499.18*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0571 | 10.23*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
757 days
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