V-Lab
Kawasaki Setsubi Kogyo Co Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 3rd, 2026
1 Day
628.77
decreased by 69.16
1 Week
665.69
decreased by 32.24
1 Month
1,086.94
increased by 389.01
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 2, 2026 at 06:57 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 18, 1996 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 27 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.4646 | 4.32*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1025 | 9.25*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8725 | 61.82*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -0.5003 | -8.39*** |
| γ2 | 0.8190 | 9.38*** |
| γ3 | -0.5870 | -9.47*** |
| γ4 | 0.4828 | 7.18*** |
| γ5 | -0.3844 | -4.89*** |
| γ6 | 0.0576 | 0.44 |
Persistence:
0.975
Half-life:
27 days
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