V-Lab
Tong Ren Tang Tech Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, August 20th, 2026
1 Day
4,851.64
decreased by 243.63
1 Week
5,255.44
increased by 160.17
1 Month
6,056.37
increased by 961.10
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 20, 2026 at 06:43 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 9, 2010 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.994, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 124 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1341 | 5.93*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0755 | 10.66*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9189 | 123.91*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0002 | 0.05 |
Persistence:
0.994
Half-life:
124 days
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