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V-Lab

Jia Yao Holdings Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis

Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, August 20th, 2026

1 Day

5,244.45

increased by 3,383.70

1 Week

2,399.11

increased by 538.36

1 Month

2,882.30

increased by 1,021.55

Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 20, 2026 at 06:42 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Jia Yao Holdings Ltd ILLIQ-SMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidity

Illiquidity Forecast

How illiquidity evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 27, 2014 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 32 trading days.

μ

ILLIQ-SMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.4931
2.94***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1243
5.37***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8541
31.07***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=4
γ11.1819
3.15***
γ2-2.4916
-4.65***
γ32.2807
6.93***
γ4-1.6155
-4.32***

Persistence:

0.978

Half-life:

32 days