V-Lab
Jia Yao Holdings Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
Illiquidity prediction for Thursday, August 20th, 2026
1 Day
5,244.45
increased by 3,383.70
1 Week
2,399.11
increased by 538.36
1 Month
2,882.30
increased by 1,021.55
Analysis last updated: Thursday, August 20, 2026 at 06:42 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 27, 2014 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so illiquidity mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 32 trading days.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.4931 | 2.94*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1243 | 5.37*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8541 | 31.07*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | 1.1819 | 3.15*** |
| γ2 | -2.4916 | -4.65*** |
| γ3 | 2.2807 | 6.93*** |
| γ4 | -1.6155 | -4.32*** |
Persistence:
0.978
Half-life:
32 days
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