V-Lab
Virtual Mind Holding Co Ltd Spline ILLIQ Liquidity Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Illiquidity prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
237,398.30
decreased by 26,475.00
1 Week
292,209.50
increased by 28,336.20
1 Month
215,202.57
decreased by 48,670.73
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 08:31 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's illiquidityIlliquidity Forecast
How illiquidity evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Dec 3, 2013 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, illiquidity shocks have a half-life of 14146 trading days (~56.1 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
μ
ILLIQ-SMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.8064 | 4.41*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2191 | 0.73 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7809 | 2.59*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | -1.6048 | -0.25 |
| γ2 | -0.4743 | -0.06 |
| γ3 | 7.0715 | 3.07*** |
| γ4 | -9.1057 | -5.42*** |
| γ5 | 5.9439 | 6.71*** |
| γ6 | -4.0366 | -5.55*** |
| γ7 | 5.2624 | 4.51*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
14146 days
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